Environmental representativeness and the role of emitter and recipient areas in the future trajectory of a protected area under climate change

Abstract

We propose a protocol to estimate the effects of climate change on species inhabiting a reserve by assessing the location of areas with similar environmental conditions to a focal protected area, both now and in the future. Following this protocol it is possible to estimate: (i) the level of change that will occur in the current climatic conditions of a reserve; (ii) the present location of the areas with similar conditions to those this reserve will have in the future (emitter areas); and (iii) the location of the areas that in the future will have similar environmental conditions to those existing in the studied protected area (recipient areas). This knowledge can be used to anticipate and adapt the protected area against future changes. In this study, we used an Iberian reserve representative of the Mediterranean conditions, the Cabañeros National Park, as an example to calculate the extension, fragmentation and location of the areas with climatic conditions similar to those of the reserve. We also determined the connectivity between these areas and their degree of anthropic alteration.