Distribution models of the Spanish argus and its food plant, the storksbill, suggest resilience to climate change

Abstract

Climate change is an important risk factor for the survival of butterflies and other species. In this study, we developed predictive models that show the potentially favourable areas for a lepidopteran endemic to the Iberian Peninsula, the Spanish argus (Aricia morronensis), and its larval food plants, the storksbill (genus Erodium). We used species distribution modelling software (MaxEnt) to perform the models in the present and in the future in two climatic scenarios based on climatic and topographic variables. The results show that climate change will not significantly affect A. morronensis distribution, and may even slightly favour its expansion. Some plants may undergo a small reduction in habitat favourability. However, it seems that the interaction between this butterfly and its food plants is unlikely to be significantly affected by climate change.