Animal Biodiversity and Conservation. Volume 48.1 (2025) Pages: e0010-

Predicting citril finch Carduelis citrinella response to climatic change: An analysis of survival and recruitment probabilities in relation to meteorological covariates

Borràs, A., Conroy, M. J., Cabrera, J., Cabot, J., Senar, J. C.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32800/abc.2025.48.0010

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Abstract

Understanding the impact of climate change on species’ demography is essential for assessing their vulnerability to environmental shifts. We analysed a dataset of 6,967 citril finches Carduelis citrinella captured at a Pyrenean site between 1991 and 2014. Survival and recruitment were used as overall measurements of fitness, and both parameters were related to a set of meteorological variables using Cormack-Jolly-Seber and Pradel capture-recapture models. We found that survival of both adult and juvenile birds was negatively affected by the number of rainy days during the breeding season (June). In contrast, no meteorological variable significantly influenced recruitment rates. The number of rainy days in June has declined over the past 50 years and is projected to decrease by an additional 10-25 % in the Pyrenees by 2070. We used Pradel ‘Survival and Lambda’ models to evaluate the direct effects of June rainfall on population growth rate (Lambda, λ) in citril finch populations. Predictions across the observed range of rainy days (2-10) revealed that λ dropped below 1 when June rainfall fell below ~7 days, indicating population decline. Based on these estimates, we then projected future population dynamics under climate change scenarios involving a 10 % and 25 % reduction in June rainfall over the next decades. Simulations showed a progressive decrease in λ under both scenarios, supporting the prediction that climate change will lead to long-term declines in citril finch population size in the Pyrenees.

Keywords

Climate change, Rainfall, Population dynamics, Lambda, Population growth rate, Population projections

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Borràs, A., Conroy, M. J., Cabrera, J., Cabot, J., Senar, J. C., 2025. Predicting citril finch Carduelis citrinella response to climatic change: An analysis of survival and recruitment probabilities in relation to meteorological covariates. Animal Biodiversity and Conservation, 48: e0010-, DOI: https://doi.org/10.32800/abc.2025.48.0010